2021. 6. 16. 테슬라 소식

1. 6월 18일부터 7월 17일까지, 테슬라의 기가 베를린 건설 계획 수정안(배터리 공장 증설 및 공장 디자인 변경 등)을 국민들이 공개 검토 가능하며, 8월 16일까지 사업 변경에 대한 이의를 제기할 수 있게 됩니다. 

 

이게 저에게는, 올해 3분기 내에 기가 베를린 양산은 쉽지 않다는 말로 들리네요. 

 

긍정적인 마인드로, 우선은 기가 텍사스 양산부터 관심을 가져보죠. 루머로는 기가 텍사스에서의 모델Y 양산 시점은 10월입니다.

 

Tesla's revised plans for the construction of Giga Berlin will be available for public review from June 18 to July 17. The public will have the opportunity to file objections to changes in the project within two months. The decision on whether a repeat public hearing is necessary will be made only after all objections have been received.

The public has the opportunity to file objections to changes in the project within two months from the start of its showing, which ends on August 16, 2021. All objections raised earlier remain in effect. After the expiry of the time limit for filing objections, the licensing authority decides whether a re-discussion of the objections raised is necessary.

<tesmanian.com>

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2. 테슬라는 기가 베를린의 행정적 절차로 인한 시간 딜레이에도 불구하고, 물품 조달과 제조, 판매를 위한 시스템 구축에 집중하는 모습입니다.

 

기가 베를린을 위한 철도 노선을 사고, 직접 관리하려는 움직임이 있다고 합니다. 벌써, 노선 소유자와 협의 중이라네요.

 

Tesla wants to independently manage a short train route to its new electric vehicle and battery plant, Giga Berlin. The route owner, Deutsche Regionalisenbahn Gruppe, is already in talks with the manufacturer to sell it.

<tesmanian.com>

 

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3. 리프레쉬 모델S 롱레인지의 공식 EPA 범위와 효율성 등급이 나왔는데, 현재의 총 주행거리는 405 마일이라고 합니다.

 

이에, 배터리셀은 18650 으로 추정됩니다. 

 

참고로 집고 넘어가야할 것이, 기가 베를린의 양산이 딜레이되는 관계로 완벽한 4680 배터리셀 확보는 내년을 지나야 할 것으로 생각됩니다. 물론, 시작은 올해 말이겠죠.

The refreshed Tesla Model S Long Range has received an official EPA range and efficiency rating, which demonstrates ongoing improvements. The vehicle now has 405 miles total range with a combined city/highway MPGe of 120.

At the moment, Tesla has not disclosed details about what battery cells will be used to produce the 2021 Model S LR, however, it can be assumed that for now these will be 18650 cells. The mass production of 4680 cells has not yet begun, and when it starts, the ones that will be produced will be used primarily for the upcoming Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, and Model S Plaid. Other models of the company, for now, will use the current, time-tested cells. In such a situation, it is especially impressive that Tesla was able to optimize the Model S so well that it performs significantly better, even with the use of the 18650 battery cell form factor.

<tesmanian.com>

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4. 독일에 슈퍼차저 스톨 1,000 개가 설치 되었습니다.

 

참고로, 중국에는 840개 이상의 슈퍼차저 스테이션이 있고, 100개 이상의 서비스 센터가 있습니다. 

 

이렇듯, 우리 주주들에게 있어서는 공장 하나의 오픈이 굉장히 큽니다. 

 

By significantly increasing the number of customers in Germany, Tesla aims to increase their satisfaction with the expansion of the charging infrastructure. In June 2021, the company reached a new milestone by opening 1,000 Supercharger stalls across the country.

<tesmanian.com>

Tesla has announced that it has successfully launched over 840 total Supercharging stations and opened more than 100 Service Centers in China. The electric automaker continues to expand its footprint in China, a market that has been recognized as a battleground for Tesla’s future success. China has long had the world’s largest automotive market, but the surging number of electric cars in the market makes it a main competition area for the world’s electric car companies, new and old.

<teslarati.com>

 

조금 더 이야기를 하면, 모건 스탠리에서는 테슬라의 중국 이외의 지역으로의 생산 시설 확대를 굉장히 중요하게 봅니다. 더군다나, 텍사스, 독일 외에 인도, 아세안, 북유럽, 중부유럽 등의 지역을에 5~10년 안에는 최소 5개 이상의 자동차 공장을 추가로 건설할 것으로 예측하고 있습니다.

 

Expanding production facilities outside of China is an important aspect. The opening of Giga Berlin and Giga Texas should give Tesla the opportunity to introduce unit economics that are expected to vastly outperform Fremont's. Morgan Stanley explains that in reality, it is very difficult for an automobile company to generate positive operating profit from manufacturing in California and the associated input costs. Car manufacturers have long since begun to scale back their presence in California, which is a great example. In addition to building factories in Texas and Germany, Morgan Stanley predicts at least five additional auto factories in the next five to 10 years, including markets such as India, ASEAN, Northern / Central Europe, further US expansions, etc.

<teslarati.com>

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5. 미즈호 증권 애널리스트 라케쉬(Rakesh)는 '테슬라가 전세계 자동차 시장의 10%의 시장 점유율을 달성할 수 있을 것으로 보고 있으며, 이 점유율을 차지하기 시작할 때 자동차 시장의 진정한 붕괴가 일어날 것이다' 라고 보고 있습니다.  

 

이건 예전에 스마트폰 관련 분석 자료들과 일맥상통하는 내용입니다. 스마트폰 점유율이 12%까지 수많은 기업들이 스마트폰 시장에 참여하지만 그 이후로는 애플이 탑을 먹었죠.

 

마찬가지로, 테슬라가 탑 된다는 내용입니다. 이 기업의 주주는 우리이고요.  

 

참고로, 테슬라는 올해 1분기 세계 BEV(순수 전기차) 시장의 약 24%를 점유했습니다. 

총 BEV 보급률을 보면, 유럽은 7.4%, 중국은 6.8%, 미국은 1.9% 입니다.

 

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is expected to control 10% of the global automotive market in the coming years, analysts from Tokyo-based Mizuho Bank said in a recent note to investors. Tesla’s disruption of the global automotive market through its high-tech and affordable electric vehicles could ultimately lead to the company producing 1-out-of-10 cars on the road in the coming years.

“Total BEV penetration is at 7.4% in Europe and 6.8% in China, while the U.S. lags at 1.9%. The up and comers still face challenges with VW sales lagging, while GM appears to be getting traction from its ~ $4K HongGuang Mini EV in China.”

Mizuho is bullish on the idea that TSLA could gain further traction in the EV market by leaving behind legacy companies and newcomers to the BEV sector due to its overwhelming lead in battery tech and autonomous driving developments. The company’s considerable lead in both of these categories makes it a prime candidate to begin even more disruption of the global automotive market. Mizuho believes Tesla could achieve at least 10% of the total market share in the coming years.

Rakesh is ranked 93 out of 7,551 analysts on TipRanks and holds a five-star rating with an average return of 26.3% and a success rate of 69%. He holds Tesla with an $820.00 price target and a “Buy” rating for the stock.